The ongoing third Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) at the Gabba, Brisbane, has been heavily disrupted by rain, frustrating both fans and players with frequent stoppages. However, the Indian cricket team would welcome a complete washout of this Test, and there’s a strategic reason behind it—India’s better prospects for securing a spot in the World Test Championship (WTC) Final.
Let’s break down the scenario in detail, covering the context, current standings, and implications of a rain-affected draw for Team India.
1. The Current Situation of the 3rd Test
- Australia has dominated so far in this match, with centuries from Steve Smith and Travis Head pushing their first innings total to 445 runs.
- Despite a six-wicket haul by Jasprit Bumrah, India struggled with the bat, losing early wickets.
- A critical 10th-wicket stand between Bumrah and Akash Deep helped India avoid the follow-on, keeping their hopes alive.
However, with rain delays severely reducing playing time—including a completely washed-out first day—India’s chances of saving the match look promising.
2. India’s Position in the WTC Points Table
India currently sits third on the WTC 2023-25 points table with:
- 110 points
- 57.29% points percentage
Australia is in second place, with:
- 102 points
- 60.71% points percentage
A draw at the Gabba would see Australia’s points percentage drop slightly to 58.89%, while India’s would dip to 55.88%. Although Australia will remain ahead, the gap narrows, keeping India firmly in the race.
3. Why Does a Draw Benefit India?
India’s qualification for the WTC Final depends heavily on the outcomes of their remaining matches. Here’s why rain at the Gabba works in their favor:
- Australia’s Home Advantage Neutralized
Australia has been dominant at home, especially at the Gabba—a historically stronghold venue for them. A rain-affected draw here prevents them from gaining maximum points, which would further widen the gap between the two teams. - India Controls Their Destiny
If this Test ends in a draw, India can qualify for the WTC Final by winning the remaining two Tests in Melbourne and Sydney. A 2-1 series victory would push India’s points percentage above 60%, ensuring their direct qualification. - External Dependencies Reduced
A loss at the Gabba would mean India must rely on external results—such as Sri Lanka beating Australia in their upcoming series or other favorable outcomes involving South Africa and Pakistan. However, a draw simplifies the equation: India just needs to win their matches.
4. WTC Qualification Scenarios for India
| Scenario | India’s Qualification Outcome |
|---|---|
| Draw at Gabba + India wins next 2 Tests | India qualifies directly for the WTC Final. |
| India loses at Gabba + wins 2-1 | India relies on Sri Lanka beating Australia. |
| 2-2 series result | India requires external results to go their way. |
| India loses 3-1 or 4-1 | India is eliminated from the WTC Final race. |
5. Key Factors Favoring India’s Qualification
- Weather Forecast for Brisbane
Rain is expected to continue on Day 5, with intermittent showers and thunderstorms likely to interrupt play.- This greatly reduces Australia’s chances of forcing a result, given the limited overs remaining.
- India’s Improved Batting Performance
Contributions from KL Rahul (84 runs) and the lower-order resistance (Bumrah and Akash Deep) have ensured India stayed competitive. Saving the follow-on was crucial to keep the Test alive. - Momentum for Upcoming Tests
A draw would boost India’s morale, giving them confidence heading into the next two Tests in Melbourne and Sydney.
6. How India Can Secure a WTC Final Spot Moving Forward
- Win the Series 2-1: India must win both the Melbourne and Sydney Tests.
- Avoiding Losses: Even a single defeat from here on complicates India’s WTC Final chances, forcing them to rely on other teams’ results.
- Monitor Australia’s Away Series: Australia will play Sri Lanka next year, and India will hope for a positive result there.
7. Updated WTC Points Table After a Draw
| Rank | Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Points | % Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 104 | 58.89 |
| 3 | India | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 112 | 55.88 |
Conclusion
For Team India, rain at the Gabba represents an opportunity to stay firmly in control of their World Test Championship destiny. By drawing this Test, India would avoid conceding vital points to Australia and set up a straightforward path to the WTC Final—win the next two Tests, and the qualification is sealed.
The focus will now shift to Brisbane’s unpredictable weather on Day 5, where rain could play the most significant role in deciding the course of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and India’s WTC campaign.