WTC Final Qualification Scenarios: How India can reach the World Test Championship 2023-25 Final

The race to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 final has intensified, with South Africa overtaking India to claim the top spot in the standings following their 2-0 series victory over Sri Lanka. With four teams—India, Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka—in contention, the qualification scenarios have become increasingly competitive.

Current Standings and Context

South Africa’s recent series win at home against Sri Lanka has solidified their position as favorites to qualify for the WTC final. India’s qualification chances have taken a hit due to inconsistent performances, losing four of their last five Test matches. As a result, the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) series against Australia has become critical for India’s chances.

India’s Task in the BGT Series

India has won the toss and opted to bowl first in the third Test at The Gabba, Brisbane, on a greenish pitch under overcast conditions. Rohit Sharma’s decision aims to exploit the conditions and gain an early advantage. The remaining three matches in the series are crucial for India’s WTC final qualification hopes.

Team Changes for the 3rd Test:

• India: Ravindra Jadeja and debutant Akash Deep replace Ravichandran Ashwin and Harshit Rana.
• Australia: Josh Hazlewood returns to the lineup, replacing Scott Boland.

Playing XIs:

• India: Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant (wk), Rohit Sharma (c), Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, Akash Deep.
• Australia: Usman Khawaja, Nathan McSweeney, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey (wk), Pat Cummins (c), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood.

WTC Qualification Scenarios for India

1. Certainty in Qualification (Two Wins and One Draw):
   • India needs to win two Tests and draw one of the remaining three matches.
   • This would take India’s win percentage to 60.53%, securing at least second place behind South Africa.
   • Even if Australia wins 2-0 in Sri Lanka, their win percentage would only reach 57.02%, leaving India ahead.
2. If India Wins the BGT Series 3-2:
   • India’s win percentage would reach 58.77%, giving them a strong chance to qualify.
   • Australia could still finish below India if they win only 1-0 in Sri Lanka.
3. If India Loses the BGT Series 2-3:
   • India’s win percentage would drop to 53.51%.
   • In this scenario, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Australia could all surpass India.
   • India would need South Africa to lose both their upcoming Tests against Pakistan and Australia to draw or lose their series in Sri Lanka.

Why This Series Matters

With South Africa now firmly ahead, India’s fate largely rests on their performance in the BGT series and the outcomes of other WTC matches. The series has effectively become a knockout contest between India and Australia, making every session critical in determining the finalists for the WTC 2023-25.